Ohio’s fair redistricting has yet to become reality

The Ohio Bipartisan Redistricting Commission Amendment was approved in 2015 by 71% of Ohio voters with hopes to combat gerrymandering in a state where Republicans only received 53% of the presidential vote yet controlled 75% of U.S. House districts. 

But the political reality that Ohioans face in 2022 seems to have diverged from the reality they voted for in 2015. 

When Ohioans go to the Ohio Redistricting Commission’s official website, a small paragraph states that the commission was created by an amendment to the Ohio Constitution in November 2015. 

“Every 10 years after the U.S. Census, Ohio's 99 House districts and 33 Senate districts must be redrawn to reflect the results of the most recent census. The Ohio Redistricting Commission is tasked with redrawing each of those legislative districts,” the website’s home page reads. “This decade marks the first time the newly configured Ohio Redistricting Commission will redraw Ohio's House and Senate districts under new criteria overwhelmingly approved by Ohioans in 2015.” 

The commission consists of seven members: Republicans Gov. Mike DeWine, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Auditor Keith Faber, State Senate President Matt Huffman, State House Speaker Bob Cupp and Democrats House Minority Leader Allison Russo and State Sen. Vernon Sykes. 

Common Cause Ohio laid out the entire redistricting process: To get a 10-year congressional map passed, 60% of the General Assembly must vote in favor, including at least 50% of assembly members from each of the two major political parties. If that fails, the commission takes over, and the map it creates must receive two votes from each party. If this fails, the process goes back to the General Assembly, with a lesser requirement of only 1/3 of the vote needed from each party. If all else has failed, the assembly can adopt a map through a simple majority vote, but it would exist for four years rather than 10. 

For state legislative maps, the commission holds principal mapmaking authority. However, similar to the congressional map, four votes, including two from each party, are needed for a 10-year state legislative map to pass. If that fails, the map will only be valid for four years. 

When this process was created in 2015, through the approval of Issue 1, the Ohio Bipartisan Redistricting Commission amendment, it was a huge change in how legislative maps were drawn to combat gerrymandering. The Brennan Center for Justice said in 2015 that a history of failed efforts to tackle gerrymandering in Ohio ultimately ended with Issue 1’s passing.  

“The three-decade history of failed efforts to tackle gerrymandering in Ohio ended Tuesday afternoon when voters overwhelmingly approved Issue 1, a constitutional amendment to create a bipartisan redistricting commission to draw legislative districts starting in 2021,” the article read. “The new commission will fundamentally reshape how district lines are drawn for the state House and Senate.” 

Currently, the state’s governor, secretary of state, auditor, senate president, speaker of the house, house minority leader and another state senator all face contempt of court. 

Cleveland.com reported March 30, the Ohio Supreme Court has given the commission’s members until Monday morning to explain why it should not be held in contempt due to Republican attempts to approve a fourth legislative map plan, one that opponents say is “almost exactly like the commission’s third plan,” which was ruled an unconstitutional gerrymander by the Ohio Supreme Court on March 16.  

On March 22, Cleveland.com also reported the Ohio Redistricting Commission hired outside mapmakers from California and Florida to draw state legislative maps. 

Meanwhile, Russo and Sykes have asked the Ohio Supreme Court to move back the primary election, currently scheduled for May 3. 

According to FiveThirtyEight, Ohio’s new congressional map, still in litigation, gives Republicans an 11-2 congressional district advantage, with only two districts considered to be “highly competitive seats.” 

This is Ohio’s political reality in 2022: Attempted gerrymandering, a complete breakdown of the commission, the state’s top politicians potentially facing contempt of court and uncertainty of whether the primary election will take place on its expected date.

Kyle Kondik, an Ohio U alum and current communications director for the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has studied gerrymandering, authoring “The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections.” Kondik said in an email interview that partisan gerrymandering has become easier over time. 

“Partisan gerrymandering is as old, or even older, than the nation itself,” Kondik said. “Gerrymandering is probably a bit more foolproof than it was a generation or two ago because the power of incumbency is not as strong and because presidential voting has become more predictive of outcomes – in other words, it’s easier to draw effective gerrymanders than it once was. But there has been partisan intent in redistricting for a very long time.” 

Ohio has a redistricting system in place that differs greatly from other states. 

“The situation is perhaps most comparable to Virginia’s, where voters also approved a new system for this decade’s redistricting,” Kondik said. “The new commission failed to produce maps, but the state Supreme Court ended up drawing maps that I think were basically fair. The difference here is that, at least for the state legislature, the court can’t draw the maps. So we’re left with this back and forth.” 

Ohio’s current maps have faced scrutiny on the basis of partisan gerrymandering. Though no party has won a presidential election in Ohio with more than 53% of the vote since 1988, and more than 60% of the vote since 1964, the Republicans currently control 12 of Ohio’s 16 U.S. congressional districts. 

This is due to Republicans controlling the power to redraw district lines in the past, according to Kondik.

“Ohio Republicans are used to having the power to draw the district lines, and the process depends on strong enforcement from the Ohio Supreme Court. The court, by a 4-3 majority, is giving the process teeth, but it’s clear that this new system is not working very well,” Kondik said. 

The GOP also currently holds 25 of 33 Ohio Senate seats and 64 of 99 Ohio House seats. 

“Ohio has become a more Republican-leaning state over the last few election cycles. That makes it easier for Republicans to win, even if the maps were ‘fair.’ Even the Democrats are not proposing truly 50-50 maps, because that wouldn’t really reflect where Ohio is today,” Kondik said.  

The most recent congressional map draft received an “F” grade in partisan fairness from the Princeton Gerrymandering Project due to its “significant Republican advantage,” and a “C” grade for its competitiveness. 

On March 29, the commission’s Republicans approved the state legislative plan that, according to Cleveland.com, was a slightly altered version of a map already rejected by the state’s Supreme Court. A bipartisan plan was ultimately abandoned. For this map, Faber joined the two Democrats in voting against it, but DeWine, LaRose, Huffman and Cupp once again voted in favor. 

“The Supreme Court seems intent on forcing Republicans to go along with a map that the court deems as lawful,” Kondik said. “I suspect such a map will eventually emerge, but given that this is a totally new process, I really don’t know.” 

As it stands, Ohio’s primary elections are set to take place May 3. Even with the potential of the primary election being moved back, Director of the Athens County Board of Elections Debbie Quivey is moving forward with election preparations. 

“As of right now, we’re having a May 3 primary,” Quivey said. “And we are moving forward with that. We have everything ready here in our county. We have everything ready, our polls set up, our supplies, anything that the Secretary of State has told us we have permission to move forward with, we’re ready. We’re just waiting to see what we need to do about our ballots.”

“That’s set in law with the Ohio revised code, and it would take a law to change that,” Quivey added about the date of the primary election. “So as of right now, May 3 is the primary for Ohio. Until we hear anything different, we’re having an election May 3.” 

Quivey said that the BOE is currently “in a pause” right now, having been directed to do so by the Secretary of State’s office. 

“We are basically in pause right now. We’ve had a directive from the Secretary of State until there’s a little more knowledge about the redistricting. We are prohibited from doing any reprogramming, creating any new ballots or anything of that type,” Quivey said. “And the reason is, that first ballot, the first set of ballots, had the districts on them. We were to proceed, they had the congressional, the house, which is the general assembly, and the senate districts on them. After that, the general assembly, that is your house districts, and your senate districts’ maps, they were shot down again by the Supreme Court. So, that put that on hold.” 

As it stands, the question for Quivey and the BOE is what is going to end up being on the ballot. 

“The congressional, that’s still there. That has not been voted down yet. So we are in a hold pattern right now, we can’t go forward or do anything when it comes to a ballot or any reprogramming,” Quivey said. 

Quivey said she hopes to hear something this week and is waiting for direction from the Secretary of State’s office on what to do next. 

Regardless, Quivey has confidence in her BOE come Election Day, whenever the outcome may be. 

“I am not worried about it because I am confident that the Athens County Board of Elections, whatever we need to do we will do, and be ready for whatever we are directed to do,” Quivey said. 

But while there is confidence at the Athens County Board of Elections to handle the unknown future of Ohio’s redistricting and upcoming primary election, the same cannot be said at the statewide level. 

“Political battles are often intense and nasty,” Kondik said. “If you don’t want such intense battles over district lines, you need to take elected officials out of the process.”

For more insight on Ohio’s redistricting process and its current status, check out our podcast with Ohio University professor Tom Suddes. Suddes is a political columnist for Cleveland.com and The Columbus Dispatch.