OPINION: Iowa stays red despite early polls saying otherwise
Donald Trump wins Iowa receiving six electoral votes. Throughout the past elections, Trump has proven to have a steady hold on the state. There was a conversation about a possible win for Kamala Harris in the state Trump pulled through with around a 13% difference.
According to Iowa’s history, it’s not exactly a shock that Trump won the state. Iowa was never considered a swing state in this election due to Trump’s previous victories in the state in 2016 and 2020. However, a recent opinion poll cast some doubt on Trump’s position in the race. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll predicted a win for Harris with 47% for Harris and 44% for Trump. Pollster Ann Seltzer said, “It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” Republicans were quick to shoot down this possibility of a win for Harris in Iowa. The Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufman stated that the poll should be considered “propaganda”. Seltzer then claimed the method for the poll was the same as the previous polls that accurately predicted a win for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
The opinion poll taken by the Des Moines Register showed a notable sway in women voters specifically. Independent women chose Harris over Trump with 57% to 29%. In September, it was close to 40% to 37%. This is likely due to the threats to abortion under the Trump administration. Also, the extremely harmful rhetoric written in, “Project 2025”, about women. Although Trump continues to claim to not know anything about the project.
On the other hand, men held strong for Trump with 52% for Trump and 38% for Harris. Although this information is not ideal, it’s not shocking. The gender gap has seemed to grow larger and larger throughout this election as women’s issues seem to be front and center. As well as the fact that if elected, Harris would be the first female president in American history.
Another demographic that swayed left in the Iowa opinion poll is people 55 years and older. The poll predicted 51% Harris and 39% Trump. 35 to 54-year-olds held 50% Trump and 42% Harris, and voters younger than 35 were close, predicting 46% Harris and 44% Trump.
Iowa’s voters were focused on the two issues of abortion and the economy. Both issues have been major points of division throughout election season.
Abortion rights have been up in the air since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The Supreme Court ruling left many female citizens with a deep feeling of unease. When human rights are on the table the election often becomes more personal to the voters. Iowa has already passed abortion laws such as a ban on abortions past six weeks. With Harris’s promises to reinstate Roe v. Wade, voters who worry about abortion are likely to swing left.
The economy has seemed to be a point of tension since the pandemic. The economy in Iowa has left citizens concerned about an increase in inflation causing anxiety among many. As the cost of living continues to rise people continue to panic. Trump’s promises to help the working class and lower the cost of living have caused many voters to swing right in this election.
Des Moines opinion poll left many democrats hopeful for a shocking victory in Iowa. In the end, the state proved to hold true to its history as Trump took the state.