OPINION: Trump’s weekend truth doesn’t come true

Mark Harris is a first-year student at Ohio University and an opinion writer at The New Political.

Please note that these views and opinions do not reflect those of The New Political.

Last weekend, the former president of the U.S., posted on his social media site Truth Social, that he would be arrested on Tuesday, March 21. This did not happen. However, the New York City Police have been preparing for his imminent arrest. They have been putting up barricades around the department and ordering officers to be prepared for actions Trump's supporters may take. All of this is in regard to whether or not Trump misused funds to pay off adult film star Stormy Daniels. I cannot say much about the legal side of things, because I am most definitely not a lawyer. The political fallout of these events, on the other hand, I feel much more qualified to discuss.

The effect that this will have on his Republican primary bid will be nothing but positive. The average Republican voter will likely see his indictment as politically motivated, just as the former president is framing the situation. Trump claims that the imminent indictment is a targeted attack taken to undermine his 2024 election bid. Not unlike the days and weeks leading up to Jan. 6 when he claimed the election was stolen, even though the general public knew it wasn’t true, his supporters will take his word over the reality in front of them.

 So, in all likelihood his supporters will vote for him regardless of whether or not he is indicted. A Trump indictment will have secondhand effects on his primary challengers and will play a major role in the results of the Republican primary. Perhaps most notably with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who would have to help facilitate Trump’s extradition to New York. This will put DeSantis in quite the political bind, he will have to choose between upsetting the Republican base and doing Trump a major political favor. 

However, DeSantis isn’t the only potential Republican candidate. Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence is also in a tough situation. Pence was unwilling to hold up the proceedings on Jan. 6, 2021, leading to rioters threatening his life. Pence has used the actions of former President Trump on that day as justification for why he should be the next Republican nominee for president. While Jan. 6 is still under investigation, the Daniels case has caused Pence to come out in support of the former president. This muddies his campaign message at best and contradicts it at worst. 

The female candidate in the Republican primary, Nikki Haley, has also spoken out against indicting Trump. It is also important to mention she, unlike Pence and DeSantis, has officially declared she is running against Trump in 2024. All these things in conjunction with one another should help expand Trump’s lead in the republican primary, however I don’t think this will help Donald if he makes it to the general election. 

In the general election, an arrest does nothing but hurt Trump’s chances of winning. While Trump would be the first president to be indicted for a crime, likewise if convicted, he will be the first former president convicted of a crime. This would diminish moderate support for Trump.

Even if the Republicans have a massive turn out, Trump proved to be a reason for Democrats to turn out in both 2020 and 2022. If Trump isn’t electable without indictment, he’s definitely not more electable after indictment. While Trump is known for his ability to bounce back from anything, I just don’t know how he’s going to bounce back from this, especially if his supporters do something outrageous in response.  

For Trump to stand a chance, Biden will have to be the Democratic nominee and run a particularly bad campaign, both of which are possible. However, the discussion around the race would focus heavily on Trump’s indictment or conviction. 

These are dark days for our country and we must not cheer too loudly. Even if Trump is found guilty, it will not just be a blemish on his legacy, but instead a black mark on our country’s history forever. No other president has tarnished the image of the American presidency like Donald Trump. 

We must understand what led to his election in the first place. He would never have succeeded in being elected if the establishment in the federal government actually provided for the people of this country. Trump seized upon the righteous anger of the public at the establishment and used it to his own political ends. If the government continues to not represent the people’s interests, someone else will do the same. So, while I hope justice is served and that Trump is not treated as above the law, I will not be satisfied until we find a way to bring the needs of the public into the focus of our political discussions.