OPINION: Trump's victory in New Hampshire sets the stage for a dreaded rematch
Danny Murnin is a junior studying journalism and assistant opinion editor for The New Political.
Please note that these views and opinions do not reflect those of The New Political.
1,215. That is the magic number of how many delegates are needed to secure the Republican nomination for President of the United States. On Tuesday, a week after his dominant win in the Iowa Caucus, former President Donald Trump’s comfortable 11-point victory in New Hampshire should erase any lingering doubts he won’t blow through that threshold and face President Joe Biden in November once again.
While it may be months until Trump officially secures the nomination, it was never really a question that Republican voters would give him a shot at a second term in the White House. Since April of last year, Trump has not once been below 50% in national Republican primary polls, and his lead has consistently grown.
A large field that, at one point, included South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has significantly dwindled. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who was also a member of Trump’s Cabinet, is the only major candidate besides Trump who remains in the field.
Despite the very steep uphill climb she faces, Haley has vowed not to drop out, which will certainly irk her fellow Republicans who are quickly lining up behind Trump in an attempt at party unity. While I’ve previously made clear that Haley would be a fantastic general election candidate for Republicans who would be very difficult to beat, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire show there is no path to victory for her in this primary. I have no idea whether she is actually serious about staying in for at least another month, but whether she is or isn’t, no longer matters.
Despite the fact that Americans feel extremely negative about the prospect of a Biden vs. Trump rematch (see here and here), voters have done nothing to try and prevent it. The historically unpopular Biden is faced with no actual credible challenge on the Democratic side, and voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have practically crowned Trump on the Republican side.
Whether you like it or not, on Jan. 20, 2025, either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be administered the presidential oath of office for a second time. Sure, there will be several other candidates on the ballot in November, and more Americans than usual will vote third party, but the person sitting in the Oval Office exactly a year from now will either be the current President or the previous one. At this point, discussions of any other candidate on any side are just pointless.
Despite the unpopularity of Trump and Biden, this election will come down to which candidate’s weaknesses are a bigger issue for the less loyal voters in the party. Even though Trump had impressive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, a deeper look at the results shows there are some serious warning signs for Trump. His rash demeanor, reckless behavior following the 2020 election, and ongoing legal issues are hurting him with moderate voters. A significant number of Nikki Haley supporters have said they would outright vote for Biden if Trump is the Republican nominee. As long as there aren’t any major changes in typical turnout and demographic voting patterns, this would likely doom Trump’s bid for a second term, as it was these same types of voters that made the difference in 2020. The Biden campaign has its own significant difficulties as well, however. There are warning signs all over that young voters and voters of color, two key Democratic blocs, may not be as reliable in 2024. Anger over Biden’s handling of the current situation in the Middle East, unfulfilled campaign promises and a high cost of living isn’t going to just go away.
While this Republican primary may not officially be over yet, the writing on the wall isn’t hard to make out. While so many on both sides have been insistent that this would not be the case, Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the two major presidential candidates in November, and the sooner we all accept that the more prepared we will be for what is inevitably going to be a nasty, brutal jog to November.
