OPINION: Duds, Dobbs and Donald: A GOP recipe for failure
Overview of the 2022 Midterm Elections Results, Photo courtesy of The Guardian
Zach Donaldson is a sophomore studying political science and an opinion writer for The New Political.
Please note that these views and opinions do not reflect those of The New Political.
The 2022 Midterm Elections were bound to be a bloodbath for Democrats. A deeply unpopular president in the White House, unified control of Congress and a 40-year high in inflation had most pundits and pollsters predicting a comfortable Republican takeover. But as ballots came in, what was supposed to be a red wave resembled more of a red raindrop. Democrats will retain their Senate majority and look poised to expand it in the Georgia runoff. When all is said and done, Republicans will barely take back the House of Representatives.
Republicans got in their own way this election cycle. In a climate where victory seemed all but certain, the GOP decided to push the envelope too far and voters took notice. If they hope to stay electorally relevant, Republicans need to assess and run quality candidates, go moderate on abortion and finally ditch Donald Trump.
This year's GOP winners and losers should be the first place to scout for future racehorses. When Republicans ran candidates that were trusted to govern and focused on kitchen table, issues like crime and the economy, they won. Popular incumbents like Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine sailed to victory, and New York Republicans' crime-centric campaigns were a rare bright spot for the GOP, picking up three congressional seats and ousting the current DCCC chair.
When Republicans ran a carpet-bagging snake oil salesman, a disgraced former athlete who paid for his multiple mistresses' abortions and a Christian nationalist who accepts donations from declared anti-semites, they lost. Candidates like Mehmet Oz and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia were audacious risks and highly unfavorable. They squandered opportunities at key pickups and ceded to Democratic authority where they didn't have to. It shouldn't be complex political calculus that good candidates win and bad candidates lose, but it will be a key lesson Republicans take away from this cycle.
Republicans also paid for the Dobbs decision, sinking candidates who refused to take more moderated or holistic approaches to abortion rights. While inflation remained the most important issue on voters' minds, abortion was close behind at 27%. 60% of voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases opposed to 36% who said it should be illegal in all or most cases. Referendums across the country confirmed this consensus, with issues relating to abortion rights winning in states as red as Montana and Kentucky. Candidates in swing states who embraced restrictive abortion policies with few or no exceptions lost handily, highlighting how out of touch the GOP is with Americans on the topic of abortion.
Furthermore, while his name did not appear with a bubble next to it, there is no question that former President Donald Trump was on the ballot this fall. With a slew of endorsements for election denialists in competitive secretary of state and gubernatorial races, the strength of Trump's kingmaking ability and falsehoods were undoubtedly a question for voters this fall. The answer was a near-summary rejection of conspiracists, with Trump-backed candidates taking losses in states like Arizona, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Also important to note is the success of candidates who survived opposition in the primaries spurred by Mr. Trump, such as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and South Carolina Congresswoman Nancy Mace. Voters made it clear that they are not interested in relitigating the results of the 2020 election and they value candidates who represent their values over the hurt feelings of a political loser.
Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said it best, "three strikes, you're out," when recounting how Donald Trump has cost his party the last three elections. The Trump of 2016, who, for better or worse, was able to capture the imagination and votes of many aggrieved working-class Americans, is a far cry from the Donald Trump of today. His divisive antics, complete disregard for addressing substantive issues, and otherworldly ego are a cancer that has repeatedly caused his party to overcompensate and underperform. If Republicans have any political acumen left, they will kick the disgraced presidential hopeful to the side for 2024 and throw their hats behind a rising star like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who cruised his way to re-election.
The 2022 Midterm Elections were a win for democracy, rebuking much of the strong manning, lying and extremism so prevalent in the Republican Party. I sincerely hope these results will guide the GOP to prioritize a sense of normalcy and good governance over MAGA bumper stickers and Newsmax soundbites. As long as America is a two-party system, it would be preferable for each party to live in reality.
