OPINION: 2023 election results could have major ramifications

Danny Murnin is a junior studying journalism and assistant opinion editor for The New Political. 

Please note that these views and opinions do not reflect those of The New Political.

Editor’s Note: This article was updated to include the author’s information.

There has recently been a lot of Democratic hand-wringing about the party’s appeal to the public heading into 2024. However, the election results from Tuesday night should be enough to ease these concerns temporarily. In contest after contest across the country, Democratic candidates and aligned causes won big. 

Ohio voters overwhelmingly chose to legalize recreational marijuana and also enshrine the right to an abortion in the Ohio Constitution. Total turnout in Ohio currently stands at just under 49%, a shockingly high number for an off-year election with no candidates on the statewide ballot. 

Republicans had very high hopes in New Jersey of making gains in the state legislature, but Democrats cruised to victory. In the state Senate, the 25-15 majority currently held by Democrats remained unchanged. In the state Assembly, which currently has a 46-34 Democratic majority, Democrats won 51 races, a net gain of five seats. 

Democrats maintained control of the Virginia Senate and flipped the House of Delegates in Virginia’s closely watched legislative contests, denying Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin a trifecta. Republicans actually performed very well in many of these races in Democratic-leaning districts, winning several across both chambers, but it wasn’t enough to matter. 

In Kentucky, Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, fended off a challenge from Republican Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron to win a second term. Beshear’s comfortable victory against a rising Republican star after winning in 2019 by just 5,000 votes ensures his status as a name to watch in Democratic politics. 

After the disaster that was 2022 for Pennsylvania Republicans, Tuesday’s results certainly won’t help ease any concerns about Republican appeal in the pivotal battleground. Democrat Daniel McCaffery won a vacant seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, reestablishing the prior 5-2 Democratic majority. His comfortable seven-point victory is a blow to Republicans, who were hoping for a more favorable court composition ahead of 2024. Democratic candidates also won the three other statewide judicial contests on the ballot. 

The solidly red state of Mississippi gave Republicans their only major victory of the night, with Governor Tate Reeves winning re-election against Democrat Brandon Presley, who was seen as a strong challenger. However, Presley’s 4.5% loss is the closest a Democrat has come to being elected governor of the state this century. 

Considering all of Tuesday's results and what they mean for the fastly-approached, critical 2024 elections, the takeaway is obvious: Republicans have a serious appeal problem. The party’s strict and unrelenting stance on abortion is the main issue. Republicans simply don’t seem to understand that voters broadly support abortion access and that it is costing them elections they should be winning. We saw this in the unexpectedly close results of the 2022 midterms, which was a major disappointment for Republicans. 

This year’s elections also once again saw prominent Republican campaigns railing against LGBTQ+ rights, particularly in Virginia. Convincing suburban voters that their children are being subject to woke ideology and indoctrination in their classroom has become a key part of the GOP platform since President Joe Biden took office. In 2022, Republican candidates who made this a key issue didn’t do so well, and the same was true on Tuesday. As much as Republicans would like this to change, voters really don’t care about pronouns and the private medical decisions other families are making. 

While they may market themselves otherwise, the truth is that the Republican Party has become defined by an obsession with meaningless culture wars, a desire to impose extreme religious views on Americans, and unwavering loyalty to disgraced former President Donald Trump. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Republican candidates who don’t go down this path actually do quite well in their elections. 

On the contrary, Democrats should and are feeling good about Tuesday. Their many significant wins show their messaging has continued to improve and is resonating with voters, and Republican efforts to tie individual candidates with the very unpopular Biden are not working. 

However, Democrats need to remain cautious and aware that next year may be a different story. As I just mentioned, Biden is in very poor shape with his bid for a second term. Recent polls in CNN and The New York Times that have been widely discussed bring almost entirely terrible news for Biden. Unlike 2022 and Tuesday, Democrats will share a ballot with Biden next year. Yes, Trump, likely to be the Republican nominee, has four impending criminal trials, and their results could easily completely flip the script of the election. But still, early polls have been very good news for him, and Trump being on the ballot tends to drive up Republican turnout. 

Trump’s legal battles aren’t the only thing putting a major cloud on the 2024 elections, which at the moment are so unpredictable. A historically chaotic and wild Congress, the possibility of a major regional war in the Middle East, and third-party candidacies with more legs and appeal could all upend our limited understanding of how 2024 may play out.  

Still, the results I discussed above do offer some important clues about where the electorate stands at the moment. Neither party should disregard or minimize Tuesday’s significance. However, it was still an off-year election with a much lower turnout than we will see next year, so it shouldn’t be overplayed either.